Global markets started the week on a cautiously optimistic note, with sentiment shifting across crypto, equities, FX and commodities as investors position themselves ahead of key macro events in December.
Crypto: Sentiment Weakens as Outflows Hit and Regulators Step In
The cryptocurrency space continues to face pressure after a wave of institutional outflows and growing regulatory scrutiny.
Bitcoin remains volatile around the mid-$80k range, with Deutsche Bank warning that recent price action reflects a “Tinkerbell effect”—the idea that belief and sentiment alone are holding up valuations.
Stablecoins also entered the spotlight after the European Central Bank cautioned that large issuers could drain deposits from the traditional banking system during periods of stress. Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows, signalling cooling demand from the institutional side.
FX: Dollar Slides as Fed Cut Bets Intensify
The U.S. dollar weakened across major currency pairs as traders increased their expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
EUR/USD pushed higher toward the mid-1.15s, fuelled by lower U.S. yield expectations after Fed officials hinted that interest rates may be lowered “in the near term.”
Despite this backdrop, gold failed to extend its typical safe-haven rally. The metal remains stuck near short-term lows, while silver continues to lag the broader commodities complex.
Commodities: Oil Stabilises While Precious Metals Struggle
Oil markets found their footing after last week’s sharp declines, with Brent and WTI nudging slightly higher.
The rebound comes as investors weigh the possibility of progress in Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations, which could eventually alter future supply dynamics.
Elsewhere, gold and silver spent the early session under pressure despite favourable dollar conditions. Weak industrial demand and cautious positioning ahead of key data releases kept metal traders on the sidelines.
Equities: Europe Opens Higher as Investors Look Toward December
Equity markets attempted a recovery on Monday, with European indices moving into the green after two weeks of choppy trading.
Optimism around a potential Fed rate cut provided support, helping offset recent concerns over stretched valuations in large tech and AI-linked stocks.
Retailers are now preparing for one of the most important weeks of the year: Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Performance over the next several days will set the tone for the entire holiday trading season.
Macro Outlook: Policy Expectations & Geopolitics Drive the Agenda
With the global earnings calendar relatively quiet, markets are being guided primarily by macro developments:
- Fed rate-cut expectations
- Geopolitical progress in Eastern Europe
- Investor risk appetite
- Retail sector performance heading into the holidays
Across all asset classes, volatility remains elevated — but so does the potential for a year-end rebound if monetary policy shifts in investors’ favour.